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☆ Why the U.S. may extend its run as the world's leading economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-10 | by ( Carlos Waters | In Carloswaters | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S., China and India may take turns leading the global economy this century, according to an analysis from the Centre for Economics and Business Research. The CEBR forecast suggests China could potentially take the top spot as the world's largest economy by gross domestic product as early as 2037. "The ranking of which is the largest economy in the world — that doesn't take into account things like living standards. Around the world, policymakers are spending large sums of public funds to prepare for social and environmental challenges that may be ahead. Watch the video above to learn more about the race to be the world's largest economy.

Persons: Nina Skero, Mariana Mazzucato, we're, China that's, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Yasheng Huang, Rajiv Biswas Organizations: U.S, Centre for Economics, Business Research, University College London, Washington, MIT Sloan School of Management, P Global Market Intelligence, CNBC Locations: China, India, U.S, Japan, South Korea, Asia, Pacific

☆ UK needs new plan to reverse hit to living standards, researchers say
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

People walk alongside the City of London financial district in London, Britain, October 25, 2023. REUTERS/ Susannah Ireland/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Britain needs a new economic strategy to reverse 15 years of falling living standards and worsening inequality, a leading think tank and an academic research centre said on Monday. "There is no excuse for fatalism," Torsten Bell, chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, said. "Closing the gap with peers like Australia, France and Germany would deliver huge living standards gains, with typical households over 8,000 pounds better off." ($1 = 0.7881 pounds)Writing by William Schomberg; Editing by Daniel WallisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Susannah Ireland, Jeremy Hunt, Keir Starmer, Torsten Bell, William Schomberg, Daniel Wallis Organizations: City, REUTERS, Foundation, London School of Economics, Centre for Economic, Labour Party, Conservative Party, Starmer's Labour, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, Australia, France, Germany, Birmingham, Manchester

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan addresses members of parliament from his ruling AK Party (AKP) during a meeting at the Turkish parliament in Ankara, Turkey, October 25, 2023. Political analysts said his planned address in Istanbul aimed to reinforce his growing criticism of Israel's bombardment of the Gaza Strip and to overshadow Sunday's celebrations marking Turkey's secular roots. Turkey has condemned Israeli civilian deaths caused by Hamas's Oct. 7 rampage through southern Israel, but Erdogan this week called the militant group Palestinian "freedom fighters". ATATURK LEGACYThis week, Erdogan invited all Turks to attend the rally where he said "only our flag and the Palestine flag will wave". Erdogan, Turkey's longest-serving leader, and his Islamist-rooted AK Party have eroded support for the Western-facing ideals of Ataturk, who is revered by most Turks.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Murat Cetinmuhurdar, Erdogan, Israel, Sinan Ulgen, Ulgen, ATATURK, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, Turkey's, Ataturk, Asli Aydintasbas, Gumrukcu, Jonathan Spicer, Helen Popper Our Organizations: AK Party, Turkish, REUTERS, Hamas, Gaza, Hamas's, Jerusalem, NATO, European Union, Centre for Economic, Foreign Policy Studies, Brookings, Thomson Locations: Ankara, Turkey, Handout, Israel Turkey, ISTANBUL, Israel, Istanbul, Italy, Turkish, Palestine, Washington

"Financial inclusion," defined as individuals and businesses having access to useful and affordable financial products, has declined in the U.S., according to new industry research. The U.S. fell to fourth place, from second, this year in the second annual Global Financial Inclusion Index compiled by the Centre for Economics and Business Research in London and Des Moines, Iowa-based Principal Financial Group. Singapore's small size, with a population of just six million people, helps it in the ranking, but it is also boosted by its commitment to financial literacy, financial technology adoption and employer support. Consumer sentiment in the U.S. is down across financial systems and employers but is especially pronounced when it comes to the government. "It creates uncertainty and causes people to delay decisions that they might otherwise make about purchase around savings, and you don't want to paralyze people's decision-making around financial security," Dan Houston, Principal Financial Group Chair and CEO, told CNBC in an exclusive interview.

Persons: people's, Dan Houston Organizations: Centre for Economics, Business Research, Financial Group, Finance, Consumer, Supreme, CNBC Locations: U.S, London, Des Moines , Iowa, Singapore, Hong Kong, Switzerland, Sweden

☆ United States falls in measure of providing access to financial services
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUnited States falls in measure of providing access to financial servicesFinancial inclusion means individuals and businesses have access to useful and affordable financial products. A country's employers, financial systems and governments are the pillars for what makes a system inclusive. The Centre for Economics and Business Research and Principal Financial Group researched 42 markets to create an index of financial inclusion that puts Singapore at the top spot for the second year. The U.S. now ranks fourth, falling from second place last year. CNBC's Sharon Epperson spoke exclusively with Principal Financial Group Chairman and CEO Dan Houston about financial inclusion and the U.S. position.

Persons: CNBC's Sharon Epperson, Dan Houston Organizations: Economics, Business Research, Financial Locations: States, Singapore, U.S

☆ The Economic Fallout From Extreme Heat Will Rise Over Time
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Patricia Cohen | More About Patricia Cohen | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

But over the longer term, the economic fallout caused by climate change is likely to be profound. Researchers have found that extreme temperatures reduce labor productivity, damage crops, raise mortality rates, disrupt global trade and dampen investment. An analysis by researchers associated with the Centre for Economic Policy Research found that in Europe, France, Italy, Spain, Romania and Germany have been most affected by climate-related disasters over the past 20 years. Such developments put added pressure on public spending, as governments are called on to replace damaged infrastructure and provide subsidies and relief. The analysis notes that tax revenues could also shrink when climate changes disrupt economic activity.

Organizations: Northern, Centre for Economic Policy Research Locations: Europe, United States, France, Italy, Spain, Romania, Germany, Central, Eastern

☆ Ukrainian refugees: how will the economy recover with a diminished population?
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Olena Harmash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

In previous refugee crises, for example in Syria, refugees' desire to return home has faded with time, UNHCR studies show. Conscription-aged men are restricted from leaving Ukraine, so working-aged women, and children, make up the majority of refugees. Ukraine's population problem goes beyond millions of refugees. A census in 2001 - the country's only so far - recorded a population of 48.5 million. Demographer Libanova estimated the population at between 28 million and 34 million at the start of 2023 in parts of the country controlled by Kyiv.

Persons: Korzh, Volodymyr Kostiuk, Kostiuk, It's, Dmytro Tsygankov, Ella Libanova, Libanova, Ksenia Karpenko, Karpenko, Corina Rodriguez, Catarina Demony, Mike Collett, White, Frank Jack Daniel Our Organizations: United Nations, UNHCR, Kyiv, for Economic Research, Political, for Economic, MEN, National Academy of Science, European Commission's, Research, The, Economic Strategy, Reuters, Thomson Locations: KYIV, Europe, Kyiv, Portugal, Ukraine, Lagoa, Syria, Ukrainian, Moscow, Russia, Crimea, Belarus, Russian, Tarragona, Spain, Madrid, Barcelona, Lisbon

☆ Britain is getting so desperate to tame inflation it’s talking about food price caps
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Food inflation dipped slightly to 15.4% in May, but that’s still the second-highest rate on record. But chocolate and coffee prices are rising as global commodity prices soar, British Retail Consortium CEO Helen Dickinson said. Price controls anyone? “The current food price shock does not warrant such an intervention,” he added. Brexit is responsible for about a third of UK food price inflation since 2019, according to researchers at the London School of Economics.

☆ Does British tourism really need the royal family?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Ross Bennett-Cook | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

CNN —Love them or loathe them, the royal family are up there with red telephone boxes and scones when it comes to images of Britishness. The royal family does bring tourism to the UK. But if the royal family were to disappear, would the UK’s tourism industry suddenly implode? And while the international perception of Britain is certainly intertwined with the royal family, this does not tell us whether a reigning royal family is necessary for tourism. After all, the history surrounding the monarchy and places associated with them would still be here even if the royal family was not.

☆ What King Charles' coronation means for the UK economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

But the UK economy as a whole could suffer as workers take an extra day’s holiday. John Lewis' Coronation Lewis Bear. John Lewis & PartnersDepartment store John Lewis has had to limit in-store purchases of its Coronation Lewis Bear to two per household, and the teddy is out of stock online. For the coronation, UK luxury brands “have procured unique merchandise at all levels of the economy and we’re seeing people buying it, particularly Americans and EU customers,” she added. (The coronation holiday will be the third holiday Monday this month.)

☆ Forget the pension protests. France’s economy has momentum
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-30 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

France’s economy grew 0.2% in the first quarter of this year, its national statistics agency said Friday, after stagnating in the previous quarter. Yet the long-running protests are unlikely to leave a lasting dent in France’s economy, according to Charlotte de Montpellier, a senior economist at Dutch bank ING. But its $2.8 trillion economy has held up comparatively well. Office buildings illuminated in the La Defense business district of Paris, France, on Monday, Feb. 6, 2023. ‘Momentum’ building for banksBritain’s exit from the European Union has also been a boon for France’s financial sector.

The case for investing in India — a nation of 1.4 billion — is clear, and only bolstered by recent geopolitical shifts. As Western leaders look to boost economic cooperation with countries that share similar values, India, the world’s largest democracy, stands to gain. Arun Sankar/AFP/Getty ImagesIndia’s so-called “demographic dividend,” the potential economic growth arising from a large working-age population, represents a major opportunity. A recent Air India order for more than 200 Boeing planes could support more than 1 million American jobs. One consistent with our democratic values, and another not.”‘Economic miracle?’Beyond geopolitics, India’s economic and demographic fundamentals are driving business interest.

And, as it's global liquidity that matters, the bowl is also kept brimming as the Bank of Japan continues to buy government bonds at pace. But a study looking at the U.S. banking shock that led to the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last month and deposit runs across many regional banks suggests a different angle - a 'deposit glut' from within the richest countries that is increasingly unstable. "In a context of rising wealth inequality and growing corporate savings, an increasing share of bank deposits is uninsured and held by sophisticated agents," Vuillemey wrote. "This implies that these deposits are increasingly fragile, and that deposit insurance schemes ... are slowly losing bite." As illustrated in Technicolor in the SVB run, big uninsured deposits are volatile - sensitive as they are to any hint on the bank's health and moveable at push of a button.

They are among the discordant calls made by Spanish and EU bureaucrats as Spain's drive to hand out 77 billion euros ($84 billion) in grants from EU pandemic recovery funds becomes mired in complexity, according to interviews with business associations, government officials, companies and consultants. Spain is the EU pilot project for disbursing grants from the largest stimulus package in the bloc's history, an overall pot of 724 billion euros, including loans. A year into the disbursement process, about 23.5 billion euros had been awarded as of December last year, according to the latest figures published by the government last month. That's a sluggish pace, given the EU and Spain have set a deadline of the end of this year to award all 77 billion euros. Meanwhile, only about 9 billion euros have actually reached the businesses awarded funds, according to calculations by the Esade Centre for Economic Policy, a Madrid-based think-tank that tracks the pandemic recovery cash.

☆ A top tip for central banks: talk less, smile more
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

WASHINGTON, April 11 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Investors hang on central bankers’ every word, hoping to gain an edge for their next trade. But with consumer prices rising at the fastest pace in decades, central bankers can’t easily cut borrowing costs, either. Chatty central banks are a relatively new phenomenon. Investors are also more sensitive to central banks today than in years past. Still, being more careful about what’s said, and how it’s said, could help central banks better balance their priorities.

☆ Employees Need Positive Feedback From Bosses. Without It, People Quit.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Molly Lipson | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

A 2021 study by the global management-consulting firm McKinsey found that the top-two reasons people quit their jobs are because they don't feel valued by their company or their manager. And when employees feel happy and rewarded by their jobs, they are also more productive. How to really mean it when you give an employee praiseFor employees to really feel valued at work, it's important that they are recognized on a regular basis. While a simple acknowledgement of good work can be a powerful tool, Baumgartner told me that a simple "thank you" isn't sufficient to truly appreciate employees' work. Peer-to-peer recognition is also an important way employees can feel valued.

After serving as mayor of Istanbul, he stepped onto the national stage as head of the AK Party, which triumphed in 2002 national elections. Western allies initially saw Erdogan's Turkey as a vibrant mix of Islam and democracy which could be a model for Middle East states struggling to shake off autocracy and stagnation. Faced with a struggling economy, a weak currency and a countdown to this year's election, Erdogan sought rapprochement with rivals across the region. Now he must convince voters he is the leader to rebuild Turkey from the rubble after this month's earthquake. That will be, in all likelihood, to the detriment of the ruling AK Party and President Erdogan," said Sinan Ulgen, director of the Istanbul-based Centre for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies.

☆ Biden to announce $34 billion Boeing and Air India deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Nikki Carvajal | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

CNN —Air India will purchase more than 200 planes from Boeing, a White House official says President Joe Biden will announce Tuesday. The agreement will include 190 Boeing 737 MAXs, 20 Boeing 787s, and 10 Boeing 777Xs – a total of 220 firm orders valued at a list price of $34 billion, the official says. The purchase will also include customer options for an additional 50 Boeing 737 MAXs and 20 Boeing 787s, totaling 290 airplanes for a total of $45.9 billion at list price. The company has not announced any sales to a Chinese passenger airline since November 2017, and the country banned the Boeing 737 Max for much longer than most countries. A Boeing 737 Max finally took off in China in January for the first time since 2019.

LONDON, Feb 10 (Reuters) - The two investment obsessions of the year so far - artificial intelligence and super-tight labour markets - meet head on. Far from relaxing, should office or home-based workers now fret that we're in for anything but a tight jobs market over the coming years? Morgan Stanley's thematic research team said this week it was inundated with enquiries about generative AI during its recent client visits. Much like the pandemic, fear of automation could have as big an economic impact as its actual spread. US jobs growth by sectorMcKinsey chart on automation worldwideFathom chart on US vs China AIThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

☆ Is the iPhone's 'Made in India' era beginning as Apple breaks with China?
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Diksha Madhok | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal said Apple was already making between 5% and 7% of its products in India. His comments come at a time when Foxconn (HNHPF), a top Apple supplier, is looking to expand its operations in India after suffering severe supply disruptions in China. For years, Apple had relied on a vast manufacturing network in China to mass produce iPhones, iPads and other popular products. China headaches mountBut the world’s most valuable company posted shockingly weak earnings this month, partly because of its recent problems in China. According to Counterpoint’s Pathak, India accounts for 16% of the global smartphone production, while China constitutes 70%.

Faced with a shortage of US dollars, Pakistan only has enough foreign currency in its reserves to pay for three weeks of imports. Long lines are forming at gas stations as prices swing wildly in the country of 220 million. Pakistan’s currency, the rupee, recently dropped to new lows against the US dollar after authorities eased currency controls to meet one of the IMF’s lending conditions. The country has been spending more on trade than it has brought in, running down its stock of foreign currency and weighing on the rupee’s value. Pakistan's usually bustling ports, like this one in Karachi, have ground to a halt as the country grapples with a severe shortage of foreign currency.

☆ UK set for biggest strike action in years as teachers, civil servants walk out
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Michael Holden | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

On Wednesday, about 300,000 teachers will take action, along with 100,000 civil servants from more than 120 government departments, and tens of thousands of university lecturers and rail workers. 'MOST DAYS LOST FOR 30 YEARS'Between June and November, more days were lost to industrial action than in any six months for over 30 years, according to official data. An Ipsos poll released on Wednesday suggested the public was divided on the multiple strike action, with 40% supporting the action and 38% opposed. It put the estimated impact of the teachers' strikes at about 20 million pounds a day. ($1 = 0.8130 pound)Reporting by Michael Holden, Alistair Smout and William Schomberg; editing by Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ India is a true bright spot in the midst of a global downturn, top execs and policymakers say
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

But India does shine out among the world's biggest economies, with Europe hovering on the brink of potential recession and U.S. growth slowing. "It's for the whole digital India, and creating a digital society in India," Ekholm told CNBC. watch nowIndia, he continued, "will very shortly have the best digital infrastructure outside of China," driven by telecoms juggernauts Bharti Airtel and Jio, he added. Strong tailwinds"We are very optimistic and very positive on India," the chief executive of Tata Consultancy Services, Rajesh Gopinathan, told CNBC. As Anish Shah, chief executive of Mahindra Group, told CNBC: "India will get impacted.

[1/2] Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan addresses lawmakers of his AK Party during a meeting in parliament in Ankara, Turkey, January 18, 2023. The main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) also condemned the incidents in Sweden and said they would serve Erdogan's re-election campaign. But Erdogan said this week that Sweden could no longer expect Turkey's support for its NATO bid, and Ankara cancelled a planned trilateral meeting. Washington, Stockholm and Helsinki had hoped Ankara would ratify the NATO bids before Turkey's election. While Erdogan's government backs the Nordics' NATO bid with conditions, his political opponents had been more supportive - before the Stockholm incidents.

☆ Davos: India flexes its muscle as China's star fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

In 2023, as global recession fears persist, the country is expected to log the best performance of any major economy. An Invest India banner hanging from a building ahead of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Monday, Jan. 16. India is also due to displace its powerful neighbor as the world’s most populous country this year. They’re a substantial asset — if India’s economy can create enough jobs. “The world needs resilience,” Tata Sons Chairman Natarajan Chandrasekaran told a Davos panel.

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